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This report summarizes initial work involved in constructing a recursive policy model with applications especially to the Thai agricultural sector. The work is conducted in the Division of Agricultural Economics (DAE), the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives, Royal Thai Government. The project under which the work was accomplished is a cooperative one between the Division of Agricultural Economics and the Center for Agricultural and Rural Development and the Economics Department of Iowa State University. It is funded by the Agency for International Development and the Royal Thai Government.
The overall project has several phases including regional, interregional and national programming models for analysis of policies and development programs of Thai agriculture; regional development models to evaluate effecient means of generating income and employment particularly in Northeast Thailand; individual farm models to evaluate the impact of agricultural policies and development programs on various types of individual farms in specific agro-economic zones; macro models to quantify the interrelationships between national economic policies and the agricultural sectors; market and demand studies for major agricultural commodities; market sector and transportation models directed at improving the marketing efficiency; and related studies.
The current report provides background in the initial steps of linking the national and interregional programming model of agriculture with the macro economic model of the Thai economy. The quantification of this linked model is now underway; the resulting recurrsive modeling system is designed for economic development analyses over short time periods. A main purpose is for analysis of development plans in the agricultural sector on the nonagricultural sector and vice versa.
This model linkage is a first generation attempt. Its specification is limited considerably by available time series data for the macro model. Further details and disaggregation of variables will be attained with subsequent generations of the model.
The Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University
Agribusiness | Agricultural and Resource Economics | Agricultural Economics | Asian Studies | International Economics
Stoecker, Arthur L.; Nicol, Kenneth J.; and Sriplung, Somnuk, "Structure of a Recursive Model for Policy Analysis in Thailand" (1978). DAE-CARD Sector Analysis Series. 16.