Title

Do state business climate indicators explain relative economic growth at state borders?

Campus Units

Economics

Document Type

Article

Publication Version

Submitted Manuscript

Publication Date

2016

Journal or Book Title

Journal of Regional Science.

Volume

56

Issue

3

First Page or Article ID Number

395

Last Page

419

DOI

10.1111/jors.12261

Abstract

This study submits eleven business climate indexes to tests of their ability to predict relative economic performance on either side of state borders. Our results show that most business climate indexes have no ability to predict relative economic growth regardless of how growth is measured. Some are negatively correlated with relative growth. Many are better at reporting past growth than at predicting the future. In the end, the most predictive business climate index is the Grant Thornton Index which was discontinued in 1989.

JEL Classification

O4, R1

Comments

This is a working paper of a article from Journal of Regional Science 56 (2016): 395, doi:10.1111/jors.12261.