Campus Units

Economics

Document Type

Article

Publication Version

Submitted Manuscript

Publication Date

2012

Journal or Book Title

Agricultural Economics

Volume

43

Issue

3

First Page or Article ID Number

315

Last Page

332

DOI

10.1111/j.1574-0862.2012.00585.x

Abstract

We analyze the long-term impacts of large-scale expansion of biofuels on land-use change, food supply and prices, and the overall economy in various countries or regions using a multi-country, multi-sector global computable general equilibrium model augmented with an explicit land-use module and detailed biofuel sectors. We find that an expansion of biofuel production to meet the existing or even higher targets in various countries would slightly reduce GDP at the global level but with mixed effects across countries or regions. Significant land re-allocation would take place with notable decreases in forest and pasture lands in a few countries. The expansion of biofuels would cause a moderate decrease in world food supply and more significant decreases in developing countries like India and Sub-Saharan Africa. Feedstock commodities (sugar, corn and oil seeds) would experience significant increases in their prices in 2020, but other price changes are small.

JEL Classification

D58, Q17, Q42, Q48, Q54

Comments

This is a working paper of an article from Agricultural Economics 43 (2012): 315, doi:10.1111/j.1574-0862.2012.00585.x. Posted with permission

Copyright Owner

The Authors

Language

en

File Format

application/pdf