Title

Land Allocation Effects of the Global Ethanol Surge: Predictions from the International FAPRI Model

Campus Units

Economics

Document Type

Article

Publication Version

Submitted Manuscript

Publication Date

2010

Journal or Book Title

Land Economics

Volume

86

Issue

4

First Page or Article ID Number

687

Last Page

706

Abstract

We quantify the emergence of biofuel markets and its impact on world agriculture using the multimarket, multicommodity international FAPRI model. The model incorporates trade-offs between biofuel, feed, and food production and consumption and international feedback effects of the emergence through world prices and trade. We shock the model with exogenous changes in ethanol demand, first in the United States, then in Brazil and other countries, and compute shock multipliers for land allocation decisions for important crops and countries. The Brazilian ethanol expansion using sugarcane has fewer consequences on existing arable land allocation than the U.S. ethanol expansion does using corn feedstock.

JEL Classification

Q17, Q42

Comments

This is a working paper of an article from Land Economics 86 (2010): 687.