Title

Crop-based Biofuel Production with Acreage Competition and Uncertainty

Campus Units

Economics, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development

Document Type

Article

Publication Version

Submitted Manuscript

Publication Date

11-1-2011

Journal or Book Title

Land Economics

Volume

87

Issue

4

First Page or Article ID Number

610

Last Page

627

DOI

10.3368/le.87.4.610

Abstract

This paper examines the role of uncertain crude oil prices, uncertain crop yields, and competition for acreage on corn, soybean, and switchgrass prices under biofuel production mandates. We find enforcement of the cellulosic mandate is costly in that it raises equilibrium prices of all three crops through competition for acreage. However, crude oil prices largely determine industry profitability even in the face of high crop prices. Further we find that uncertainty in crude oil prices and crop yields causes higher corn, soybean, and switchgrass prices compared to a baseline with no uncertainty.

JEL Classification

Q21, Q42

Comments

this is a working paper from Land Economics, 2011 87(4); 610-627. DOI: 10.3368/le.87.4.610.