The Forward-Looking Competitive Firm Under Uncertainty
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The Department of Economic Science was founded in 1898 to teach economic theory as a truth of industrial life, and was very much concerned with applying economics to business and industry, particularly agriculture. Between 1910 and 1967 it showed the growing influence of other social studies, such as sociology, history, and political science. Today it encompasses the majors of Agricultural Business (preparing for agricultural finance and management), Business Economics, and Economics (for advanced studies in business or economics or for careers in financing, management, insurance, etc).
History
The Department of Economic Science was founded in 1898 under the Division of Industrial Science (later College of Liberal Arts and Sciences); it became co-directed by the Division of Agriculture in 1919. In 1910 it became the Department of Economics and Political Science. In 1913 it became the Department of Applied Economics and Social Science; in 1924 it became the Department of Economics, History, and Sociology; in 1931 it became the Department of Economics and Sociology. In 1967 it became the Department of Economics, and in 2007 it became co-directed by the Colleges of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Liberal Arts and Sciences, and Business.
Dates of Existence
1898–present
Historical Names
- Department of Economic Science (1898–1910)
- Department of Economics and Political Science (1910-1913)
- Department of Applied Economics and Social Science (1913–1924)
- Department of Economics, History and Sociology (1924–1931)
- Department of Economics and Sociology (1931–1967)
Related Units
- College of Agricultural and Life Sciences (parent college)
- College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (parent college)
- College of Business (parent college)
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Abstract
This study of the firm under uncertainty relaxes the standard single production cycle assumption. Under realistic circumstances, a forward-looking risk-averse firm will produce more than a risk-neutral firm, and an increase in the mean-preserving price spread will increase the risk-averse firm's production. These results depend on firms realizing that the prices of inputs required for production in subsequent periods are correlated with the prices of current output.
There are two important implications of this work. First, empirical work should not assume, nor should it find a monotonic relationship between output and the level of risk or risk aversion. Secondly, one can rationalize previously unexplained real-world behavior such as the relative insensitivity of production and sales to current prices, and the spreading of sales over time.
Comments
This working paper was published as Lence, Sergio H. and Dermot J. Hayes, "The Forward-Looking Competitive Firm under Uncertainty," American Journal of Agricultural Economics 80 (1998): 303–312, doi:10.2307/1244503.