Campus Units

Economics

Document Type

Article

Publication Version

Accepted Manuscript

Publication Date

4-7-2017

Journal or Book Title

Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy

Volume

39

Issue

2

Publisher

Oxford University Press on behalf of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association

First Page or Article ID Number

220

Last Page

241

DOI

10.1093/aepp/ppx023

Abstract

This study analyzes forecasts of U.S. ending stocks for corn, soybeans, and wheat issued by the USDA. The proposed efficiency tests focus on forecast revisions. Forecast errors are decomposed into monthly unforecastable shocks and idiosyncratic residuals. The error covariance matrix allows for heteroscedasticity and auto-correlations. Results suggest that the USDA forecasts are inefficient, providing strong evidence that the USDA is conservative in forecasting the ending stocks. Unforecastable shocks are heteroscedastic, and idiosyncratic residuals are small. Results are consistent across the three decades analyzed, but soybean forecasts are found to be considerably worse from 2005 to 2015.

Comments

This article is published as Xiao, Jinzhi, Chad E. Hart, and Sergio H. Lence. "USDA Forecasts Of Crop Ending Stocks: How Well Have They Performed?." Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy 39, no. 2 (2017): 220-241. doi: 10.1093/aepp/ppx023. Posted with permission.

Copyright Owner

The Author

Language

en

File Format

application/pdf

Available for download on Sunday, April 07, 2019

Published Version

Share

COinS