Expansion planning for transmission network under demand uncertainty: A real options framework

Thumbnail Image
Date
2018-01-01
Authors
Fucuksayacigil, Fikri
Min, K. Jo
Major Professor
Advisor
Committee Member
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Authors
Person
Min, K. Jo
Associate Professor
Research Projects
Organizational Units
Organizational Unit
Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering
The Department of Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering teaches the design, analysis, and improvement of the systems and processes in manufacturing, consulting, and service industries by application of the principles of engineering. The Department of General Engineering was formed in 1929. In 1956 its name changed to Department of Industrial Engineering. In 1989 its name changed to the Department of Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering.
Journal Issue
Is Version Of
Versions
Series
Department
Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering
Abstract

In recent years, there has been much expectation that transmission expansion planning should address ever increasing demands for transmission services under significant and complex economic and regulatory uncertainties. In this article, toward meeting the aforementioned expectation, we develop and analyze a real options framework that provides the valuation of a transmission owner’s option to expand in his or her network. What distinguishes our framework from the extant literature is that the evolution of the demand follows a geometric Brownian motion process, it explicitly accounts for the physical flow of the electric power economically manifested as the locational marginal prices, and it shows how the values of the expansion options can be determined in the transmission network. Furthermore, our framework shows how to value an option to expedite or delay can be determined given that a specific expansion is planned. An extensive numerical example is presented to illustrate the key features of our framework.

Comments

This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis as Kucuksayacigil, Fikri, and K. Jo Min. "Expansion planning for transmission network under demand uncertainty: A real options framework." The Engineering Economist 63, no. 1 (2018): 20-53. DOI: 10.1080/0013791X.2016.1256459. Posted with permission.

Description
Keywords
Citation
DOI
Copyright
Mon Jan 01 00:00:00 UTC 2018
Collections