Volatility in Iowa agriculture, especially in yields and prices of corn and soybeans, has been increasing over time and indications are that increases in volatility are likely to continue in the future. Two primaTy reasons u nderlie probable increases in this volatility: (1) Increasing yields through plant development implies that regional weather shocks have an increasing effect on production supply, and (2) Levels of buller stocks are so low that there are limited price stabilization effects due to changes in stockholdings. Figure l shows historical yields for Iowa corn and illustrates that yield deviations have been steadily increasing over time. Stocks-to-use ratios presented in Table 1 show declines in projected values.
Smith, Darnell B. and Elmore, Steven L.
"Weather Shocks, Iowa Agriculture, and Agricultural Policy,"
Iowa Ag Review: Vol. 1
, Article 2.
Available at: http://lib.dr.iastate.edu/iowaagreview/vol1/iss4/2