Continued strong growth in ethanol production should keep corn supplies tight for at least the next few years. With low carryover stocks, livestock producers and the ethanol industry are both vulnerable to the high prices that would result from a poor crop. It is too early to make predictions about what the 2007 crop will be, but insight into the likelihood of a short crop can be gained by looking at historical variations in production.
Babcock, Bruce A.
"Corn Shortfalls: Historical Patterns and Expectations,"
Iowa Ag Review: Vol. 13
, Article 5.
Available at: http://lib.dr.iastate.edu/iowaagreview/vol13/iss2/5