Impacts of mass media coverage of the economy during normal times and recessions on the Index of Consumer Confidence using time series analysis and Granger causal analysis

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2008-01-01
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Su, Lishan
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Eric A. Abbott
Carl W. Roberts
Suman Lee
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Greenlee School of Journalism and Communication
The Greenlee School of Journalism and Communication offers two majors: Advertising (instructing students in applied communication for work in business or industry), and Journalism and Mass Communication (instructing students in various aspects of news and information organizing, writing, editing, and presentation on various topics and in various platforms). The Department of Agricultural Journalism was formed in 1905 in the Division of Agriculture. In 1925 its name was changed to the Department of Technical Journalism. In 1969 its name changed to the Department of Journalism and Mass Communications; from 1969 to 1989 the department was directed by all four colleges, and in 1989 was placed under the direction of the College of Sciences and Humanities (later College of Liberal Arts and Sciences). In 1998 its name was changed to the Greenlee School of Journalism and Communication.
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Abstract

The level of consumer sentiment influences decision making of policy makers, and therefore it is important to examine if media have powerful impacts on consumer sentiment. Based on the theories of business cycles and second-level agenda-setting, this study applies Granger causal analysis and time series analysis to explore the causal relationships among economic reporting by media, consumer sentiment and the real state of the economy embodied in Business Week, the Index of Consumer Confidence (CCI) and the Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500). The results indicate that interpretation by media have only limited effects on the level of consumer sentiment in general, and the real state of the economy plays a more important role in shaping consumer sentiment. However, during recessions and times of economic slowdowns, media have a more powerful effect on consumer sentiment though its impact is still smaller than the real state of the economy.

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Tue Jan 01 00:00:00 UTC 2008