Campus Units

Animal Science

Document Type

Article

Publication Version

Published Version

Publication Date

4-2020

Journal or Book Title

Poultry Science

Volume

99

Issue

4

First Page

2007

Last Page

2010

DOI

10.1016/j.psj.2019.11.037

Abstract

Egg production on a flock level can be summarized into several phases determined by biology of individual birds: rapid increase in production reflecting achieving sexual maturity, peak production related to maximum laying potential, followed by gradual decrease in the rate of lay as the birds age. In 1989 Yang et al. proposed a mathematical model (modified compartmental model) to describe this process. In this study a biphasic modified compartmental model was proposed for modeling, classifying, and predicting egg production in single cycle and molted flocks. Goodness-of-fit was high for both single cycle (average R2 = 0.99) and molted flocks (average R2 = 0.97), suggesting that the model could be used for benchmarking molted flocks. The difference in R2 between the biphasic model and the model used by Yang et al in 1989 can be used to differentiate between single cycle and molted flocks. The biphasic model was shown to predict future records well up to 8 wk in advance, but as with any regression model, caution is recommended when predicting records outside of the observed age range.

Comments

This article is published as Wolc, Anna, Jesus Arango, Ian Rubinoff, and Jack CM Dekkers. "A biphasic curve for modeling, classifying, and predicting egg production in single cycle and molted flocks." Poultry Science 99 (2020): 2007-2010. doi: 10.1016/j.psj.2019.11.037.

Creative Commons License

Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 License.

Copyright Owner

Published by Elsevier Inc. on behalf of Poultry Science Association Inc.

Language

en

File Format

application/pdf

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