Campus Units
Animal Science
Document Type
Article
Publication Version
Published Version
Publication Date
4-2020
Journal or Book Title
Poultry Science
Volume
99
Issue
4
First Page
2007
Last Page
2010
DOI
10.1016/j.psj.2019.11.037
Abstract
Egg production on a flock level can be summarized into several phases determined by biology of individual birds: rapid increase in production reflecting achieving sexual maturity, peak production related to maximum laying potential, followed by gradual decrease in the rate of lay as the birds age. In 1989 Yang et al. proposed a mathematical model (modified compartmental model) to describe this process. In this study a biphasic modified compartmental model was proposed for modeling, classifying, and predicting egg production in single cycle and molted flocks. Goodness-of-fit was high for both single cycle (average R2 = 0.99) and molted flocks (average R2 = 0.97), suggesting that the model could be used for benchmarking molted flocks. The difference in R2 between the biphasic model and the model used by Yang et al in 1989 can be used to differentiate between single cycle and molted flocks. The biphasic model was shown to predict future records well up to 8 wk in advance, but as with any regression model, caution is recommended when predicting records outside of the observed age range.
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 License.
Copyright Owner
Published by Elsevier Inc. on behalf of Poultry Science Association Inc.
Copyright Date
2019
Language
en
File Format
application/pdf
Recommended Citation
Wolc, Anna; Arango, Jesus; Rubinoff, Ian; and Dekkers, Jack C. M., "A biphasic curve for modeling, classifying, and predicting egg production in single cycle and molted flocks" (2020). Animal Science Publications. 629.
https://lib.dr.iastate.edu/ans_pubs/629
Comments
This article is published as Wolc, Anna, Jesus Arango, Ian Rubinoff, and Jack CM Dekkers. "A biphasic curve for modeling, classifying, and predicting egg production in single cycle and molted flocks." Poultry Science 99 (2020): 2007-2010. doi: 10.1016/j.psj.2019.11.037.