An Econometric Simulation Model for Analyzing the Use of Funds in Corn Belt Agriculture: An Application of Pure Random Coefficient Technique

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1984-04-01
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Thamodaran, R.
Heady, Earl
Schatzer, Raymond
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Center for Agricultural and Rural Development

The Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) conducts innovative public policy and economic research on agricultural, environmental, and food issues. CARD uniquely combines academic excellence with engagement and anticipatory thinking to inform and benefit society.

CARD researchers develop and apply economic theory, quantitative methods, and interdisciplinary approaches to create relevant knowledge. Communication efforts target state and federal policymakers; the research community; agricultural, food, and environmental groups; individual decision-makers; and international audiences.

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Center for Agricultural and Rural Development
Abstract

The purpose of this study is to develop an econometric simulation model for analyzing the use of funds in Corn Belt agriculture. The Corn Belt Region, one of the major regions in U.S. agriculture, constitutes states such as Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, and Ohio. A set of behavioral functions of the use funds in the region are specified to accomplish this task. Fixed expenditures, production expenditures, and land transfers are the major categories of the use of funds. Further, the behavioral equations are specified by a pure random coefficient technique and estimated by following Zellner's seemingly unrelated technique.

Based on the estimated behavioral functions and accounting identities, a simulation system of the use of funds is developed and an ex-post simulation is performed to test the validity of the model. To test its effectiveness, the model analyzes several farm policy alternatives on the use of funds, such as a 25 percent increase in prices paid indexes, a 50 percent increase in prices received indexes, and a 10 percent reduction in crop planted acres over the normal trend of these variables. An ex-ant simulation to the year 1995 is performed under the policy alternatives. Various farm financial indicators, such as production expenditures, fixed expenditures, farm debt, and credit demand are studies under these policy alternatives.

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Sun Jan 01 00:00:00 UTC 1984
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