The U.S. Export Response to Prices and the Impacts of Trade Liberalization: A Regional Trade Model Analysis
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The Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) conducts innovative public policy and economic research on agricultural, environmental, and food issues. CARD uniquely combines academic excellence with engagement and anticipatory thinking to inform and benefit society.
CARD researchers develop and apply economic theory, quantitative methods, and interdisciplinary approaches to create relevant knowledge. Communication efforts target state and federal policymakers; the research community; agricultural, food, and environmental groups; individual decision-makers; and international audiences.
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Abstract
Commodity modeling is like many other endeavors in science and in life—we continue to strive for completeness and perfection but may never be satisfied with the current level of our accomplishments. This is a productive attitude, because it always generates incentives for continued effort and progress. An alternative attitude adopted by some of our professional colleagues is agnostic: we do not know the underlying structure of commodity markets and perhaps cannot know it so we might as well give up and fit a reduced-form or a time series model.