Publication Date


Series Number

90-WP 51


Two competing econometric models of the U.S. pork sector augment the initial U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates of the U.S. Hogs kept for breeding with market information. The first incorporates the rational expectation hypothesis and the second uses futures market prices as the expectation mechanism. By using alternative composite forecasting methods, the model forecasts are weighted optimally with the initial USDA estimates. The results show that the USDA could use this cost-effective method to improve the accuracy of the initial estimates of the U.S. hogs kept for breeding by over 20 percent.