Campus Units

Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering

Document Type

Article

Publication Version

Submitted Manuscript

Publication Date

1-1-2013

Journal or Book Title

Transportation Research Record

Volume

2391

Issue

1

First Page

56

Last Page

68

DOI

10.3141%2F2391-06

Abstract

This study established a conceptual framework for capturing the probabilistic nature of travel times with the use of existing traffic simulation models. The framework features three components: scenario manager, traffic simulation models, and trajectory processor. The scenario manager captures exogenous sources of variation in travel times through external scenarios consistent with real-world roadway disruptions. The traffic simulation models then produce individual vehicle trajectories for input scenarios while further introducing randomness that stems from endogenous sources of variation. Finally, the trajectory processor constructs distributions of travel time either for each scenario or for multiple scenarios to allow users to investigate scenario-specific impact on variability in travel times and overall system reliability. Within this framework, the paper discusses methodologies for performing scenario-based reliability analysis that focuses on (a) approaches to obtaining distributions of travel times from scenario-specific outputs and (b) issues and practices associated with designing and generating input scenarios. The proposed scenario-based approach was applied to a real-world network to show detailed procedures, analysis results, and their implications.

Research Focus Area

Transportation Engineering

Comments

This is a manuscript of an article published as Kim, Jiwon, Hani S. Mahmassani, Peter Vovsha, Yannis Stogios, and Jing Dong. "Scenario-based approach to analysis of travel time reliability with traffic simulation models." Transportation Research Record 2391, no. 1 (2013): 56-68. DOI: 10.3141%2F2391-06. Posted with permission.

Copyright Owner

SAGE Publications

Language

en

File Format

application/pdf

Published Version

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