Beef Outlook in Uncertain Times

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2009-02-28
Authors
Peel, Derrell
Lawrence, John
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Cornbelt Cow-Calf Conference
Iowa Beef Center
The Cornbelt Cow-Calf Conference is one of the longest running and most successful conferences of its type in the Midwest. For over forty years, the conference has provided an opportunity for producers, researchers, and over 70 industry representatives to come together to explore current topics and issues. This concentrated one-day conference focuses on management and production practices that contribute to making the cow-calf business profitable and competitive on a long-term basis.
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Abstract

Forecasting beef and cattle markets by definition deals with the unknown, but conditions at the start of 2009 are more uncertain than usual. Typically, economists assume that demand is relatively stable from year to year and supply is the primary source of forecast error. However, as we have seen in recent months, both supply and demand are in play and many of the historic relationships used in predicting the future may not hold water in volatile markets. Following a lengthy discussion about the factors that impact the cattle market and how they have changed, we will provide our outlook for prices in 2009 and beyond and strategies for managers in uncertain times.

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