A five-commodity econometric simulation model of the U.S. livestock and poultry sector
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The Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) conducts innovative public policy and economic research on agricultural, environmental, and food issues. CARD uniquely combines academic excellence with engagement and anticipatory thinking to inform and benefit society.
CARD researchers develop and apply economic theory, quantitative methods, and interdisciplinary approaches to create relevant knowledge. Communication efforts target state and federal policymakers; the research community; agricultural, food, and environmental groups; individual decision-makers; and international audiences.
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Abstract
Government grain policies of the early 1970s which returned U.S. agriculture to a free market situation are an example of the ignored condition of the livestock and poultry sector in policy formulation. An element of uncertainty not known for many years was reintroduced under the extreme fluctuations in grain prices in the free market. Feed prices began to increase as reserves of grains were depleted through high levels of exports. Not only were profit margins in livestock production reduced but also feed prices became highly volatile after many years of stabilizing government programs. The government no longer had vast grain stocks to cushion the effects of weather and other stochastic events.