Valuation of an Option to Build a Power Plant in a Transmission Network under Demand Uncertainty

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2021-01-01
Authors
Ghodke, Jay
Nur, Gazi
MacKenzie, Cameron
Min, K. Jo
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Min, K. Jo
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Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering
The Department of Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering teaches the design, analysis, and improvement of the systems and processes in manufacturing, consulting, and service industries by application of the principles of engineering. The Department of General Engineering was formed in 1929. In 1956 its name changed to Department of Industrial Engineering. In 1989 its name changed to the Department of Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering.
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Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering
Abstract

In this paper, we investigate how to value an option to build a power plant when electricity demand fluctuates over time. Towards this aim, we first construct a transmission network, and obtain locational marginal prices for the network buses utilizing optimal power flow. Next, we construct a lattice model under the assumption that the demand fluctuation over time is represented by a geometric Brownian motion. Based on this demand lattice, we derive the economic consequences of costs to a bus with and without a power plant in a risk neutral world. These in turn will lead to the computation of the value of an option to build a power plant. This value of the option will be useful for the electric power planning as the bus with a higher value of this option indicates that the community in this bus is demonstrating a higher degree of potential need for such a power plant.

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This is a pre-print of Ghodke, Jay, Gazi Nazia Nur, Cameron MacKenzie, and K. Jo Min, "Valuation of an Option to Build a Power Plant in a Transmission Network under Demand Uncertainty." (2021). Posted with permission.

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Fri Jan 01 00:00:00 UTC 2021