Exchange rate forecasting: an application of radial basis function neural networks

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1998
Authors
Wu, Yih-Jiuan
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Leigh Tesfatsion
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Economics

The Department of Economic Science was founded in 1898 to teach economic theory as a truth of industrial life, and was very much concerned with applying economics to business and industry, particularly agriculture. Between 1910 and 1967 it showed the growing influence of other social studies, such as sociology, history, and political science. Today it encompasses the majors of Agricultural Business (preparing for agricultural finance and management), Business Economics, and Economics (for advanced studies in business or economics or for careers in financing, management, insurance, etc).

History
The Department of Economic Science was founded in 1898 under the Division of Industrial Science (later College of Liberal Arts and Sciences); it became co-directed by the Division of Agriculture in 1919. In 1910 it became the Department of Economics and Political Science. In 1913 it became the Department of Applied Economics and Social Science; in 1924 it became the Department of Economics, History, and Sociology; in 1931 it became the Department of Economics and Sociology. In 1967 it became the Department of Economics, and in 2007 it became co-directed by the Colleges of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Liberal Arts and Sciences, and Business.

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1898–present

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  • Department of Economic Science (1898–1910)
  • Department of Economics and Political Science (1910-1913)
  • Department of Applied Economics and Social Science (1913–1924)
  • Department of Economics, History and Sociology (1924–1931)
  • Department of Economics and Sociology (1931–1967)

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Economics
Abstract

The purpose of this research is to investigate the forecasting performance of Artificial Neural Network models applied to foreign exchange rates. The study concentrates on the behavior of forecasts of exchange rates generated from the radial basis function (RBF) network models where little previous work exists;Exchange rates examined are the German mark/US dollar, Japanese yen/US dollar, and Italian lira/US dollar. One-step-ahead forecasts from univariate and multivariate RBF models are compared with those generated from ARIMA models, random walk forecasts and the forward rates. Interest rates and the money supply (M1) are used as explanatory variables in the multivariate analyses;Out-of-sample evaluation criteria include root mean squared error, "correct direction", and "speculative direction". Hypothesis tests are used to assess if differences in forecast accuracy from different models are significant and to assess if models can predict the direction of change with statistical significance. The tests employed are the Modified Diebold Marino test [Harvey et al. (1997)], the Pesaran-Timmerman (1992, 1994) non-parametric market timing test, and the chi2 test of independence [see Swanson and White (1997)];The main results of the study indicate that RBF models may be a useful alternative to the other models considered for forecasting exchange rates. In particular, out-of-sample forecasting results indicate that some multivariate RBF models using interest rates as economic variables do have forecasting value for some exchange rates. In the presence of interest rates, the M1 variable does not seem to possess much explanatory power for forecasting the three exchange rates.

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Thu Jan 01 00:00:00 UTC 1998