Using a Farmer's Beta for Improved Estimation of Actual Production History (APH) Yields

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2005-03-01
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Babcock, Bruce
Hart, Chad
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Babcock, Bruce
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Hart, Chad
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Center for Agricultural and Rural Development

The Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) conducts innovative public policy and economic research on agricultural, environmental, and food issues. CARD uniquely combines academic excellence with engagement and anticipatory thinking to inform and benefit society.

CARD researchers develop and apply economic theory, quantitative methods, and interdisciplinary approaches to create relevant knowledge. Communication efforts target state and federal policymakers; the research community; agricultural, food, and environmental groups; individual decision-makers; and international audiences.

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Center for Agricultural and Rural Development
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The effect of sampling error in estimation of farmers' mean yields for crop insurance purposes is explored using farm-level corn yield data in Iowa from 1990 to 2000 and Monte Carlo simulations. We find that sampling error combined with nonlinearities in the insurance indemnity function will result in empirically estimated crop insurance rates that exceed actuarially fair values by between 2 and 16 percent, depending on the coverage level and the number of observations used to estimate mean yields. Accounting for the adverse selection caused by sampling error results in crop insurance rates that will exceed fair values by between 42 and 127 percent. We propose a new estimator for mean yields based on a common decomposition of farm yields into systemic and idiosyncratic components. The proposed estimator reduces sampling variance by approximately 45 percent relative to the current estimator.

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