Forecasting Iowa gaming volume: A comparison of four time series forecasting methods

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Date
2014-01-01
Authors
Yu, Hui
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Tianshu Zheng
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Apparel, Events and Hospitality Management

The Department of Apparel, Education Studies, and Hospitality Management provides an interdisciplinary look into areas of aesthetics, leadership, event planning, entrepreneurship, and multi-channel retailing. It consists of four majors: Apparel, Merchandising, and Design; Event Management; Family and Consumer Education and Studies; and Hospitality Management.

History
The Department of Apparel, Education Studies, and Hospitality Management was founded in 2001 from the merging of the Department of Family and Consumer Sciences Education and Studies; the Department of Textiles and Clothing, and the Department of Hotel, Restaurant and Institutional Management.

Dates of Existence
2001 - present

Related Units

  • College of Human Sciences (parent college)
  • Department of Family and Consumer Sciences Education and Studies (predecessor)
  • Department of Hotel, Restaurant, and Institutional Management (predecessor)
  • Department of Textiles and Clothing (predecessor)
  • Trend Magazine (student organization)

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Apparel, Events and Hospitality Management
Abstract

This study investigated the forecasting abilities of four forecasting techniques—(a) autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), (b) artificial neural networks (ANNs), (c) simple moving average (SMA), and (d) the naà ¯ve method—as they apply to the Iowa monthly time series of slot coin-in and table drop. Mean squared error and mean absolute percentage error were adopted as evaluation criteria to compare the forecasting abilities of these various techniques. The results indicated that SMA outperformed the other three methods, which extends the conclusions of the M-competition to time series in the gaming field. Meanwhile, the ANN technique introduced without any modification was incapable of replacing the standing of ARIMA in the practice of gaming forecasting. This study is the first attempt to explore the forecasting abilities of four prevailing forecasting models based on gaming practices. It provides researchers and practitioners with a guide to and insights into the application of the ANN technique in gaming forecasting, selection of forecasting method, and effectiveness of the model for different horizons of gaming forecasting.

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Fri Jan 01 00:00:00 UTC 2016