High-resolution crop yield predictions from satellite-generated NDVI images

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2021-01-01
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Shane, Aaron
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Matthew J Darr
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Agricultural and Biosystems Engineering

Since 1905, the Department of Agricultural Engineering, now the Department of Agricultural and Biosystems Engineering (ABE), has been a leader in providing engineering solutions to agricultural problems in the United States and the world. The department’s original mission was to mechanize agriculture. That mission has evolved to encompass a global view of the entire food production system–the wise management of natural resources in the production, processing, storage, handling, and use of food fiber and other biological products.

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In 1905 Agricultural Engineering was recognized as a subdivision of the Department of Agronomy, and in 1907 it was recognized as a unique department. It was renamed the Department of Agricultural and Biosystems Engineering in 1990. The department merged with the Department of Industrial Education and Technology in 2004.

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1905–present

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  • Department of Agricultural Engineering (1907–1990)

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Agricultural and Biosystems Engineering
Abstract

Monitoring the health of Midwestern crops throughout the growing season using satellite Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) provides valuable information directly related to yield potential. This study’s objective was to quantify the relationship between high-resolution NDVI imagery and high-resolution yield data to predict yield, create high-resolution yield maps, and provide a basis for machine control. Over two years across the Midwest, thirteen test plots were used in this study: three wheat plots, four soybean plots, and six corn plots. PlanetLabs PlanetScope Analytic Ortho Tiles with a spatial resolution of 3.7 m were used to create high-resolution NDVI images that were then corrected for top of atmosphere (TOA) reflectance and masked using plot boundary files. GPS yield data collected in six-meter sub-plots by an Almaco R1 plot combine was overlayed with the generated NDVI image to extract the nearest pixel to the sub-plot’s center latitude and longitude. Simple linear regression (SLR) was used to model the relationship between NDVI and yield. Ten percent of the outliers were removed to account for gauge R&R. The highest coefficients of determination by plot were (0.51, 0.16, and 0.71) for wheat, (0.57, 0.78, 0.49, and 0.29) for soybeans, and (0.44, 0.49, 0.74, 0.49, 0.24, and 0.70) for corn. The model for each crop was the most successful around the period of crop physiological maturity and peak NDVI value. The coefficient of determination as a stand-alone statistical metric is not adequate to evaluate the models’ performance. Little variability in yield or NDVI data will result in a low R2 value, but an exceptional standard deviation of residual error, as well as a reasonable slope, is still possible.

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Sat May 01 00:00:00 UTC 2021