Degree Type

Creative Component

Semester of Graduation

Spring 2018


Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering

First Major Professor

Sarah M. Ryan


Master of Science (MS)


Industrial Engineering


In electricity production systems, generating unit failures will result in higher electricity production cost. For a system operator, the variance of production cost is an important factor for choosing the proper commitment plan, because generating unit failures require a much more expensive unit to replace their electricity production task. Unit Commitment (UC) seeks a thermal generator commitment schedule that meets the net electricity demand in the most cost-effective way while satisfying operational constraints on both transmission and generation systems. The unexpected, extremely high operational cost is undesirable for system operators. The production cost variance could be helpful when decision makers try to select a commitment plan with low risk in its operational cost. In this project, we focus on the behavior of production cost variance for different commitment plans under a simplified model of an electric production system. In the simplified system, the warm up and shut down periods of generating units are ignored. First, a simulation model and an approximation method are built to estimate the production cost variance of this simplified system. Then, the influence of the commitment plan is observed based on simulation results. After that, the performance of both estimation approaches is tested using commitment plan data. The contribution of this project is that we incorporate the influence of the commitment plan into the production cost variance calculation and propose a potential approach for commitment plan evaluation. In the proposed approach, the decision makers could use the approximation method to select some good commitment plans from a large set of commitment plans and use the simulation method to select the best commitment plan from those good commitment plans.

Copyright Owner

Jinchi Li

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