USDA released the first corn yield forecast for 2011 on Aug. 11. Forecast U.S. yields of 153 bushels per acre are similar to last years' and six bushels below the 30-year trend line (Figure 1). This is not surprising.

On the other hand, Iowa’s forecast of 177 bushels per acre matches that of the 30-year trend line and lies 12 bushels above last year’s final yield estimate. This, if realized, would rank third highest behind 2004 (181) and 2009 (182) bushels per acre for Iowa. This seems unlikely.