Campus Units

Electrical and Computer Engineering

Document Type

Conference Proceeding

Publication Date

2020

Abstract

Despite the important role transmission line outages play in power system reliability analysis, it remains a challenge to estimate individual line outage rates accurately enough from limited data. Recent work using a Bayesian hierarchical model shows how to combine together line outage data by exploiting how the lines partially share some common features in order to obtain more accurate estimates of line outage rates. Lower variance estimates from fewer years of data can be obtained. In this paper, we explore what can be achieved with this new Bayesian hierarchical approach using real utility data. In particular, we assess the capability to detect increases in line outage rates over time, quantify the influence of bad weather on outage rates, and discuss the effect of outage rate uncertainty on a simple availability calculation.

Comments

This is a pre-print of the proceeding Zhou, Kai, James R. Cruise, Chris J. Dent, Ian Dobson, Louis Wehenkel, Zhaoyu Wang, and Amy L. Wilson. "Applying Bayesian estimates of individual transmission line outage rates." (2020). Posted with permission.

Rights

© 2020 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses, in any current or future media, including reprinting/republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works, for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted component of this work in other works.

Copyright Owner

IEEE

Language

en

File Format

application/pdf

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