Campus Units

Electrical and Computer Engineering

Document Type

Article

Publication Version

Submitted Manuscript

Publication Date

2016

Journal or Book Title

IEEE Transactions on Power Systems

Volume

31

Issue

6

First Page

4406

Last Page

4414

DOI

10.1109/TPWRS.2015.2510627

Abstract

We use North American Electric Reliability Corporation historical data to give improved estimates of distributions of blackout size, time correlations, and waiting times for the Eastern and Western interconnections of the North American grid. We then explain and estimate the implications of the power law region (heavy tails) in the empirical distribution of blackout size in the historical data for the Western interconnection. Annual mean blackout size has high variability and the risk of large blackouts exceeds the risk of medium size blackouts. Ways to communicate blackout risk are discussed.

Comments

This is a manuscript of an article published as Carreras, Benjamin A., David E. Newman, and Ian Dobson. "North American blackout time series statistics and implications for blackout risk." IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 31, no. 6 (2016): 4406-4414. doi: 10.1109/TPWRS.2015.2510627. Posted with permission.

Rights

© 2016 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses, in any current or future media, including reprinting/republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works, for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted component of this work in other works.

Copyright Owner

IEEE

Language

en

File Format

application/pdf

Published Version

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