Campus Units

Electrical and Computer Engineering

Document Type

Article

Publication Version

Submitted Manuscript

Publication Date

3-2017

Journal or Book Title

IEEE Transactions on Power Systems

Volume

32

Issue

2

First Page

958

Last Page

967

DOI

10.1109/TPWRS.2016.2578259

Abstract

In a cascading power transmission outage, component outages propagate nonlocally; after one component outages, the next failure may be very distant, both topologically and geographically. As a result, simple models of topological contagion do not accurately represent the propagation of cascades in power systems. However, cascading power outages do follow patterns, some of which are useful in understanding and reducing blackout risk. This paper describes a method by which the data from many cascading failure simulations can be transformed into a graph-based model of influences that provides actionable information about the many ways that cascades propagate in a particular system. The resulting “influence graph” model is Markovian, in that component outage probabilities depend only on the outages that occurred in the prior generation. To validate the model, we compare the distribution of cascade sizes resulting from n-2 contingencies in a 2896 branch test case to cascade sizes in the influence graph. The two distributions are remarkably similar. In addition, we derive an equation with which one can quickly identify modifications to the proposed system that will substantially reduce cascade propagation. With this equation, one can quickly identify critical components that can be improved to substantially reduce the risk of large cascading blackouts.

Comments

This is a manuscript of an article published as Hines, Paul DH, Ian Dobson, and Pooya Rezaei. "Cascading power outages propagate locally in an influence graph that is not the actual grid topology." IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 32, no. 2 (2017): 958-967. DOI: 10.1109/TPWRS.2016.2578259. Posted with permission.

Rights

© 2017 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses, in any current or future media, including reprinting/republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works, for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted component of this work in other works.

Copyright Owner

IEEE

Language

en

File Format

application/pdf

Published Version

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