Campus Units
Electrical and Computer Engineering, Statistics
Document Type
Article
Publication Version
Submitted Manuscript
Publication Date
2019
Journal or Book Title
arXiv
Abstract
We use observed transmission line outage data to make a Markov influence graph that describes the probabilities of transitions between generations of cascading line outages, where each generation of a cascade consists of a single line outage or multiple line outages. The new influence graph defines a Markov chain and generalizes previous influence graphs by including multiple line outages as Markov chain states. The generalized influence graph can reproduce the distribution of cascade size in the utility data. In particular, it can estimate the probabilities of small, medium and large cascades. The influence graph has the key advantage of allowing the effect of mitigations to be analyzed and readily tested, which is not available from the observed data. We exploit the asymptotic properties of the Markov chain to find the lines most involved in large cascades and show how upgrades to these critical lines can reduce the probability of large cascades.
Copyright Owner
The Authors
Copyright Date
2019
Language
en
File Format
application/pdf
Recommended Citation
Zhou, Kai; Dobson, Ian; Wang, Zhaoyu; Roitershtein, Alexander; and Ghosh, Arka P., "A Markovian influence graph formed from utility line outage data to mitigate cascading" (2019). Electrical and Computer Engineering Publications. 209.
https://lib.dr.iastate.edu/ece_pubs/209
Comments
This is a pre-print of the article Zhou, Kai, Ian Dobson, Zhaoyu Wang, Alexander Roitershtein, and Arka P. Ghosh. "A Markovian influence graph formed from utility line outage data to mitigate cascading." arXiv preprint arXiv:1902.00686 (2019). Posted with permission.