Campus Units

Electrical and Computer Engineering

Document Type

Article

Publication Version

Submitted Manuscript

Publication Date

2020

Journal or Book Title

arXiv

Abstract

Transmission line outage rates are fundamental to power system reliability analysis. Line outages are infrequent, occurring only about once a year, so outage data are limited. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model that leverages line dependencies to better estimate outage rates of individual transmission lines from limited outage data. The Bayesian estimates have a lower standard deviation than estimating the outage rates simply by dividing the number of outages by the number of years of data, especially when the number of outages is small. The Bayesian model produces more accurate individual line outage rates, as well as estimates of the uncertainty of these rates. Better estimates of line outage rates can improve system risk assessment, outage prediction, and maintenance scheduling.

Comments

This is a pre-print of the article Zhou, Kai, James R. Cruise, Chris J. Dent, Ian Dobson, Louis Wehenkel, Zhaoyu Wang, and Amy L. Wilson. "Bayesian estimates of transmission line outage rates that consider line dependencies." arXiv preprint arXiv:2001.08681 (2020). Posted with permission.

Copyright Owner

The Authors

Language

en

File Format

application/pdf

Published Version

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