Threshold Cointegration and Price Transmission when Expectations Matter

Thumbnail Image
Date
2017-07-01
Authors
Moschini, Giancarlo
Santeramo, Fabio
Major Professor
Advisor
Committee Member
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Authors
Person
Moschini, Giancarlo
Distinguished Professor
Person
Lence, Sergio
Professor
Research Projects
Organizational Units
Organizational Unit
Journal Issue
Is Version Of
Versions
Series
Department
Economics
Abstract

We examine the performance of the threshold cointegration approach, specifically Band-TVECM, to price transmission analysis in an explicit context where trade decisions are made based on expectation of final prices, because trade takes time. We find that, following a standard inference strategy, a large portion of three-regime cases are not identified as such. Results show that transfer costs are systematically underestimated, particularly in three-regime models. The speed of price transmission is also biased in three-regime models. Furthermore, inferences about occurrence of trade are poor, with estimated models suggesting far lower market integration than is true in the data generating process .

Comments

This article is published as Lence, S. H., G. Moschini, and F. G. Santeramo. “Threshold Cointegration and Price Transmission when Expectations Matter.” Agricultural Economics . Posted with permission.

Description
Keywords
Citation
DOI
Copyright
Sun Jan 01 00:00:00 UTC 2017
Collections