Campus Units

Economics, Marketing, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development

Document Type

Article

Publication Version

Published Version

Publication Date

2018

Journal or Book Title

Journal of the American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers

First Page or Article ID Number

1

Last Page

16

Abstract

Using agricultural professionals’ forecasts of future farmland values and corn and soybean cash prices for their service area, we analyze whether their land and corresponding crop price expectations are consistent. We find that changes in expected land prices over time are positively correlated with expected crop price changes, suggesting these two forecasts are somewhat consistent. More importantly, we find that the linkage between these two forecasts is significantly stronger in the mediumand long-term as opposed to the shortterm, as well as a substantially stronger correlation for districts that have heavier reliance on crop production as a net farm income source.

Comments

This article is published as Zhang, W., W. Zhang, and C. Hart. “Are Agricultural Professionals’ Farmland Value and Crop Price Forecasts Consistent?” Journal of American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers (2018): 1‐16. Posted with permission.

Copyright Owner

American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers

Language

en

File Format

application/pdf

Working Paper

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