The Long-Term Structure of Commodity Futures
Date
Authors
Major Professor
Advisor
Committee Member
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Authors
Research Projects
Organizational Units
Journal Issue
Is Version Of
Versions
Series
Department
Abstract
Futures markets on agricultural commodities typically trade with maximum maturity dates of less than four years. If these markets did trade with maturities eight or ten years distant, futures prices would have value as price forecasts and as a way to structure long-term swaps and insurance contracts. Agricultural commodity markets generally exhibit mean reversion in spot prices and convenience yields. Spot markets also exhibit seasonality. This study develops and implements a procedure to generate long-term futures curves from existing futures prices. Data on lean hogs and soybeans are used to show that the method provides plausible results.
Comments
This is a pre-copyedited, author-produced PDF of an article accepted for publication in American Journal of Agricultural Economics following peer review. The version of record is available online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aar137.