Trying to ascertain what commodity futures' prices are doing and will be doing a-t some time in the future has been the subject of much research and debate for many years. Two distinct factions have emerged from the controversy, the fundamentalists and the technicians. The fundamentalists rely heavily upon supply and demand analysis to determine commodity futures price movements. They try to weigh the mechanisms affecting the supply and demand relationship and determine which relation ship has the stronger force. That is, if the supply level for a commodity is projected to be up slightly (a downward pressure on price) but the export demand level has increased (a positive affect on price) with domestic demand levels relatively constant, what will the price movement in futures contracts for that commodity look like?
Catlett, Lowell B., "Charting Analysis for Commodity Futures" (1977). Economic Staff Paper Series. 134.