Document Type

Working Paper

Publication Date


Working Paper Number

WP #04025, November 2003; Old working paper #12205


This report examines potential impacts on export markets and prices from commercializing GMO hard red spring wheat in the U.S. within the next two to six years. GMO crop technology offers possible large benefits to consumers in the future, if plant-breeding concepts in the development stage materialize. For the short run, however, there is much evidence suggesting that the majority of foreign consumers have serious reservations about purchasing food products made from GMO wheat. Many foreign consumers see nothing to be gained from buying food produced with these types of wheat. Many have questions about the long-term safety of GMO crops, which may not have scientific validity. With or without scientific validity, consumer attitudes determine buying patterns when GMO food labeling programs are present, as they are in many foreign markets for wheat. Potential accidental co-mingling would put both U.S. durum and other spring wheat exports at risk even if only GMO hard red spring wheat were commercialized. With a substantial loss of export markets, excess U.S. production capacity for durum and other spring wheat would be expected to quickly depress prices for these classes to feed-wheat levels.

JEL Classification

Q16, Q17, O30, Q55, Q18

File Format



59 pages

Included in

Economics Commons