Campus Units

Education, School of

Document Type

Article

Publication Version

Published Version

Publication Date

2019

Journal or Book Title

Journal of International Students

Volume

9

Issue

1

First Page

242

Last Page

261

DOI

10.32674/jis.v9i1.266

Abstract

This study developed statistical models to forecast international undergraduate student enrollment at a Midwest university. The authors constructed a SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model with input variables to estimate future enrollment. The SARIMA model reflected enrollment patterns by semester through highlighting seasonality. Further, authors added input variables such as visa policy changes, the rapid increase of Chinese undergraduate enrollment, and tuition rate into the model estimation. The visa policy change and the increase of Chinese undergraduate enrollment were significant predictors of international undergraduate enrollment. The effect of tuition rates was significant but minimal in magnitude. Findings of this study generate significant implications for policy, enrollment management, and student services for international students.

Comments

This article is published as Chen, Y., Li, R., & Hagedorn, L. S. (2019). Undergraduate International Student Enrollment Forecasting Model: An Application of Time Series Analysis. Journal of International Students, 9(1), 242-261. doi: 10.32674/jis.v9i1.266

Creative Commons License

Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 License.

Copyright Owner

The Author(s)

Language

en

File Format

application/pdf

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