Three essays on weather and crop yield

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2011-01-01
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Yu, Tian
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Bruce A. Babcock
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Economics

The Department of Economic Science was founded in 1898 to teach economic theory as a truth of industrial life, and was very much concerned with applying economics to business and industry, particularly agriculture. Between 1910 and 1967 it showed the growing influence of other social studies, such as sociology, history, and political science. Today it encompasses the majors of Agricultural Business (preparing for agricultural finance and management), Business Economics, and Economics (for advanced studies in business or economics or for careers in financing, management, insurance, etc).

History
The Department of Economic Science was founded in 1898 under the Division of Industrial Science (later College of Liberal Arts and Sciences); it became co-directed by the Division of Agriculture in 1919. In 1910 it became the Department of Economics and Political Science. In 1913 it became the Department of Applied Economics and Social Science; in 1924 it became the Department of Economics, History, and Sociology; in 1931 it became the Department of Economics and Sociology. In 1967 it became the Department of Economics, and in 2007 it became co-directed by the Colleges of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Liberal Arts and Sciences, and Business.

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1898–present

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  • Department of Economic Science (1898–1910)
  • Department of Economics and Political Science (1910-1913)
  • Department of Applied Economics and Social Science (1913–1924)
  • Department of Economics, History and Sociology (1924–1931)
  • Department of Economics and Sociology (1931–1967)

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Economics
Abstract

The general theme of this dissertation is the study of impacts of weather variability on crop yields, with each chapter addressing a specific topic related to this theme. Chapter 2 tests the hypothesis that corn and soybeans have become more drought tolerant by regressing county yields on a drought index and time. Results indicate that corn yield losses from drought of a given severity, whether measured in quantity terms or as a percentage of mean yields, have decreased over time. Soybean percentage yield losses have also declined but absolute losses have remained largely constant. The potential impact of increased drought tolerance on U.S. crop insurance rates is illustrated by comparing Group Risk Plan (GRP) premium rates assuming time-invariant susceptibility to drought with rates generated from regression results in this dissertation. Chapter 3 develops a linear spline model with endogenous knots to capture the non-linear impacts of rainfall and temperature on corn yields. A hierarchical structure is applied to capture the county-specific factors determining corn yields. Using Bayesian techniques, the thresholds and other model parameters are simultaneously estimated. Gibbs sampling and the Metropolis - Hastings algorithm are applied to estimate the posterior distributions. Corn yield decreases significantly above the upper temperature threshold and below the lower rainfall threshold. Results indicate a geographically clustering pattern of how corn yields respond to changes in temperature and rainfall. Chapter 4 applies the linear spline yield model developed in chapter 3 to examine weather impacts on yield trend, yield risk, and the distribution of corn yield. The climate trend from 1980 to 2009 explains up to 20% of observed yield trend. Not controlling for temporal weather patters leads to biased trend estimates, especially for short times series. Isolating changes in weather variability in the sample period, the hypothesis of constant coefficient of variation is rejected in most states in the Corn Belt. Decreasing marginal benefit of weather partly explains why corn yield is negatively skewed. Conditional on weather, the distribution of unexplained residuals from our yield model is symmetric in general.

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Sat Jan 01 00:00:00 UTC 2011