Degree Type

Thesis

Date of Award

2017

Degree Name

Master of Science

Department

Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering

Major

Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering

First Advisor

Cameron A. MacKenzie

Abstract

The threats to human life and infrastructure are ever growing due to global terrorism, conflicts and climate change as well as the omnipresent threat of natural disruptions like earthquakes, volcanos, tsunamis etc. Disruptions or disasters lead to sudden changes in demand, production and supply. In case of such scenarios it is essential to optimize the utilization of available resources and avoid further wastage. In this study a model is presented to measure the changes in production due to changes in supply and demand of goods and services, and measure possible losses to industries during such disruptions. It is anticipated that there is a strong economic correlation of growth among the industries and there is a ripple effect causing losses to interdependent industries and economies in such scenarios. It is believed that, variability in the economy is preceded by stock market price fluctuations. The trend of any economy is reflected in the stock markets that it encompasses and these markets provide instantaneous feedback to changes in a state of normalcy. These stock markets have been used to study the variability in economic output of industries, and measure the dynamic changes in production or output of industries. The results of the study justify the existence of such a correlation between the gross output of industries and the stock indices that are related to these industries. Study of past disruptions is performed through a deterministic model and a stochastic model and the results obtained resonate with the existing estimates published by studies measuring the economic impacts of these disruptions. Such a study would enable governments, corporations and individual businesses to make informed decisions regarding the allocation of resources and contingency plans in case of such a disruption. The risk of monetary and market losses can be substantially reduced thus enabling faster recovery and higher resilience.

Copyright Owner

Aditya Kiran Pathak

Language

en

File Format

application/pdf

File Size

55 pages

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