Date of Award
Master of Science
Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering
The average cost of natural disasters and damage to the U.S. economy has increased each year from approximately $35 billion in 1980 to $300 billion in 2017. This increase in the cost of natural disasters could be due to an increase in the strength and frequency of natural disasters and/or growth in the U.S. economy. This thesis forecasts the cost of natural disasters by fitting probability distributions to the historical cost of billion-dollar disasters. This thesis models the cost of natural disasters based on all weather-related natural disasters that cost more than $1 billion since 1980 and based only on those natural disasters that cost more than $1 billion that occurred in the past 20 years. Using the data from 1980 to 2018, the model forecasts the annual expected cost to be $52 billion. However, if only the recent disaster data is used to fit the model, the expected annual cost $91 billion.
Shukla, Charchit, "An analysis of billion-dollar natural disasters in the United States" (2021). Graduate Theses and Dissertations. 18614.
Available for download on Tuesday, June 07, 2022