Degree Type

Thesis

Date of Award

2021

Degree Name

Master of Science

Department

Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering

Major

Industrial Engineering

First Advisor

Cameron MacKenzie

Abstract

The average cost of natural disasters and damage to the U.S. economy has increased each year from approximately $35 billion in 1980 to $300 billion in 2017. This increase in the cost of natural disasters could be due to an increase in the strength and frequency of natural disasters and/or growth in the U.S. economy. This thesis forecasts the cost of natural disasters by fitting probability distributions to the historical cost of billion-dollar disasters. This thesis models the cost of natural disasters based on all weather-related natural disasters that cost more than $1 billion since 1980 and based only on those natural disasters that cost more than $1 billion that occurred in the past 20 years. Using the data from 1980 to 2018, the model forecasts the annual expected cost to be $52 billion. However, if only the recent disaster data is used to fit the model, the expected annual cost $91 billion.

DOI

https://doi.org/10.31274/etd-20210609-175

Copyright Owner

Charchit Shukla

Language

en

File Format

application/pdf

File Size

39 pages

Available for download on Tuesday, June 07, 2022

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