Weather Forecasting as a Learning Tool in a Large Service Course: Does Practice Make Perfect?

Thumbnail Image
Date
2013-06-01
Authors
Cervato, Cinzia
Hobbs, Jonathan
Major Professor
Advisor
Committee Member
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Authors
Person
Cervato, Cinzia
Morrill Professor
Person
Gallus, William
Professor
Research Projects
Organizational Units
Organizational Unit
Geological and Atmospheric Sciences

The Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences offers majors in three areas: Geology (traditional, environmental, or hydrogeology, for work as a surveyor or in mineral exploration), Meteorology (studies in global atmosphere, weather technology, and modeling for work as a meteorologist), and Earth Sciences (interdisciplinary mixture of geology, meteorology, and other natural sciences, with option of teacher-licensure).

History
The Department of Geology and Mining was founded in 1898. In 1902 its name changed to the Department of Geology. In 1965 its name changed to the Department of Earth Science. In 1977 its name changed to the Department of Earth Sciences. In 1989 its name changed to the Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences.

Dates of Existence
1898-present

Historical Names

  • Department of Geology and Mining (1898-1902)
  • Department of Geology (1902-1965)
  • Department of Earth Science (1965-1977)
  • Department of Earth Sciences (1977-1989)

Related Units

Journal Issue
Is Version Of
Versions
Series
Department
Geological and Atmospheric Sciences
Abstract

Each spring roughly 200 students, mostly nonmajors, enroll in the Introduction to Meteorology course at Iowa State University and are required to make at least 25 forecasts throughout the semester. The Dynamic Weather Forecaster (DWF) forecasting platform requires students to forecast more than just simple ‘‘numeric’’ forecasts and includes questions on advection, cloudiness, and precipitation factors that are not included in forecast contests often used in meteorology courses. The present study examines the evolution of forecasting skill for students enrolled in the class in spring 2010 and 2011 and compares student performance with that of an ‘‘expert forecaster.’’ The expert forecasters were chosen from meteorology students in an advanced forecasting course who showed exemplary forecasting skill throughout the previous semester. It is shown that these introductory students improve in forecast skill over only the first 10–15 days that they forecast, a number smaller than the 25 days found in an earlier study examining meteorology majors in an upper-level course. The skill of both groups plateaus after that time. An analysis of two types of questions in the DWF reveals that students do have skill slightly better than that of a persistence forecast when predicting parameters traditionally used in forecasting contests, but fail to outperform persistence when predicting more complex atmospheric processes like temperature advection and factors influencing precipitation such as moisture content and instability. The introduction of a contest ‘‘with prizes’’ halfway through the semester in 2011 was found to have at best mixed impacts on forecast skill.

Comments

This article is from Weather and Forecasting 28 (2013): 762, doi:10.1175/WAF-D-12-00105.1. Posted with permission.

Description
Keywords
Citation
DOI
Copyright
Tue Jan 01 00:00:00 UTC 2013
Collections