Extreme rainfall activity in the Australian tropics reflects changes in the El Niño/Southern Oscillation over the last two millennia
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The Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences offers majors in three areas: Geology (traditional, environmental, or hydrogeology, for work as a surveyor or in mineral exploration), Meteorology (studies in global atmosphere, weather technology, and modeling for work as a meteorologist), and Earth Sciences (interdisciplinary mixture of geology, meteorology, and other natural sciences, with option of teacher-licensure).
History
The Department of Geology and Mining was founded in 1898. In 1902 its name changed to the Department of Geology. In 1965 its name changed to the Department of Earth Science. In 1977 its name changed to the Department of Earth Sciences. In 1989 its name changed to the Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences.
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1898-present
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- Department of Geology and Mining (1898-1902)
- Department of Geology (1902-1965)
- Department of Earth Science (1965-1977)
- Department of Earth Sciences (1977-1989)
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- College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (parent college)
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Abstract
Assessing temporal variability in extreme rainfall events before the historical era is complicated by the sparsity of long-term “direct” storm proxies. Here we present a 2,200-y-long, accurate, and precisely dated record of cave flooding events from the northwest Australian tropics that we interpret, based on an integrated analysis of meteorological data and sediment layers within stalagmites, as representing a proxy for extreme rainfall events derived primarily from tropical cyclones (TCs) and secondarily from the regional summer monsoon. This time series reveals substantial multicentennial variability in extreme rainfall, with elevated occurrence rates characterizing the twentieth century, 850–1450 CE (Common Era), and 50–400 CE; reduced activity marks 1450–1650 CE and 500–850 CE. These trends are similar to reconstructed numbers of TCs in the North Atlantic and Caribbean basins, and they form temporal and spatial patterns best explained by secular changes in the dominant mode of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the primary driver of modern TC variability. We thus attribute long-term shifts in cyclogenesis in both the central Australian and North Atlantic sectors over the past two millennia to entrenched El Niño or La Niña states of the tropical Pacific. The influence of ENSO on monsoon precipitation in this region of northwest Australia is muted, but ENSO-driven changes to the monsoon may have complemented changes to TC activity.
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This is a manuscript of an article published as Denniston, Rhawn F., Gabriele Villarini, Angelique N. Gonzales, Karl-Heinz Wyrwoll, Victor J. Polyak, Caroline C. Ummenhofer, Matthew S. Lachniet et al. "Extreme rainfall activity in the Australian tropics reflects changes in the El Niño/Southern Oscillation over the last two millennia." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 112, no. 15 (2015): 4576-4581. doi:10.1073/pnas.1422270112 . Posted with permission.