Campus Units

Geological and Atmospheric Sciences

Document Type

Article

Publication Version

Accepted Manuscript

Publication Date

4-2018

Journal or Book Title

International Journal of Climatology

Volume

38

Issue

S1

First Page

e323

Last Page

e329

DOI

10.1002/joc.5372

Abstract

The region near the Ligurian Sea in northwestern Italy occasionally experiences extreme rainfall events that can lead to catastrophic flooding. These events are often caused by back‐building mesoscale convective systems whose occurrence peaks during the autumn. Rapid warming of the Mediterranean Sea in recent decades has raised concerns that the warmer water may change the frequency or intensity of these rainfall events. To gain insight into possible impacts of the warming climate, surface wind and precipitation output from 12‐km horizontal grid spacing EXPRESS‐Hydro simulations of past and future climate are used to examine trends in the frequency of strong convergence and heavy rainfall events during both the past and the future climate. Strong convergence events are not found to increase in frequency in the future climate, but the rainfall associated with these events does increase. The area that experiences rainfall above a specified threshold along with the duration over which such conditions are experienced increases, especially during the autumn when increases are statistically significant. Peak 3‐hourly rainfall at a grid point does not increase in the future climate but total rain volume associated with these events does, reflecting the larger areal coverage and duration of the events.

Comments

This is the peer-reviewed version of the following article: Gallus Jr, William A., Antonio Parodi, and Maurizio Maugeri. "Possible impacts of a changing climate on intense Ligurian Sea rainfall events." International Journal of Climatology 38 (2018): e323-e329, which has been published in final form at DOI: 10.1002/joc.5372. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving. Posted with permission.

Copyright Owner

Royal Meteorological Society

Language

en

File Format

application/pdf

Published Version

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