Campus Units

Geological and Atmospheric Sciences

Document Type

Article

Publication Version

Accepted Manuscript

Publication Date

4-22-2017

Journal or Book Title

Boundary-Layer Meteorology

Volume

164

First Page

475

Last Page

490

DOI

10.1007/s10546-017-0250-5

Abstract

Wind ramps are relatively large changes in wind speed over a period of a few hours and present a challenge for electric utilities to balance power generation and load. Failures of boundary-layer parametrization schemes to represent physical processes limit the ability of numerical models to forecast wind ramps, especially in a stable boundary layer. Herein, the eight “closure parameters” of a widely used boundary-layer parameterization scheme are subject to sensitivity tests for a set of wind-ramp cases. A marked sensitivity of forecast wind speed to closure-parameter values is observed primarily for three parameters that influence in the closure equations the depth of turbulent mixing, dissipation, and the transfer of kinetic energy from the mean to the turbulent flow. Reducing the value of these parameters independently by 25% or by 50% reduces the overall average in forecast wind-speed errors by at least 24% for the first two parameters and increases average forecast error by at least 63% for the third parameter. Doubling any of these three parameters increases average forecast error by at least 67%. Such forecast sensitivity to closure parameter values provides motivation to explore alternative values in the context of a stable boundary layer.

Comments

This is a post-peer-review, pre-copyedit version of an article published in Boundary-Layer Meteorology. The final authenticated version is available online at DOI: 10.1007/s10546-017-0250-5. Posted with permission.

Copyright Owner

Springer Science Business Media Dordrecht

Language

en

File Format

application/pdf

Published Version

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