Document Type

Article

Publication Version

Published Version

Publication Date

10-2005

Journal or Book Title

Weather and Forecasting

Volume

20

Issue

5

First Page

705

Last Page

728

DOI

10.1175/WAF883.1

Abstract

Warm season convective system rainfall forecasts remain a particularly difficult forecast challenge. For these events, it is possible that ensemble forecasts would provide helpful information unavailable in a single deterministic forecast. In this study, an intense derecho event accompanied by a well-organized band of heavy rainfall is used to show that for some situations, the predictability of rainfall even within a 12-24-h period is so low that a wide range of simulations using different models, different physical parameterizations, and different initial conditions all fail to provide even a small signal that the event will occur. The failure of a wide range of models and parameterizations to depict the event might suggest inadequate representation of the initial conditions. However, a range of different initial conditions also failed to lead to a well-simulated event, suggesting that some events are unlikely to be predictable with the current observational network, and ensemble guidance for such cases may provide limited additional information useful to a forecaster.

Comments

This article is from Weather and Forecasting 20 (2005): 705, doi: 10.1175/WAF883.1. Posted with permission.

Copyright Owner

American Meteorological Society

Language

en

File Format

application/pdf

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