Campus Units

Geological and Atmospheric Sciences

Document Type

Article

Publication Version

Published Version

Publication Date

10-27-2011

Journal or Book Title

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

Volume

116

Issue

D20

First Page

D20122

DOI

10.1029/2011JD015790

Abstract

[1] Ensemble simulations of Arctic circulation can develop multiple dynamical regimes. We use ensemble simulations for June–December 2007 by the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting model to examine regime development and to understand differences in the atmospheric circulation regimes caused by sea ice. Multiple regimes are common in our ensemble simulations, although there are differences through the period. Multiple-regime states tend to be preferred slightly more in June, July, and August than October, November, and December. September has the fewest multiple-regime periods. September is also the month of sea ice minimum, suggesting that open ocean may inhibit the occurrence of multiple regimes in ensemble simulations compared to periods when substantial sea ice is present. The regime behavior occurring here suggests that as future summer ice cover wanes in the Arctic, the predictability of the atmosphere may increase.

Comments

This article is from Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 116 (2011): D20122, doi:10.1029/2011JD015790. Posted with permission.

Copyright Owner

American Geophysical Union

Language

en

File Format

application/pdf

Included in

Climate Commons

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