Document Type

Book Chapter

Peer Reviewed


Publication Date



Executive Summary

This chapter assesses long-term projections of climate change for the end of the 21st century and beyond, where the forced signal depends on the scenario and is typically larger than the internal variability of the climate system. Changes are expressed with respect to a baseline period of 1986–2005, unless otherwise stated.


This article is published as Collins, M., R. Knutti, J. M. Arblaster, J.-L. Dufresne, T. Fichefet, P. Friedlingstein, X. Gao, W. J. Gutowski, T. Johns, G. Krinner, M. Shongwe, C. Tebaldi, A. J. Weaver, M. Wehner, 2013: "Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility." In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. [Stocker, T. F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. M.B. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung , A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex, P. M. Midgley (eds).] Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

Copyright Owner

Intergovernment Panel on Climate Change



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Climate Commons