Predicting Yield Before Harvest: How Does the USDA Forecast Corn and Soybean Yield?

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2008-12-11
Authors
Thessen, Greg
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Proceedings of the Integrated Crop Management Conference
Iowa State University Conferences and Symposia

The Iowa State University Integrated Crop Management Conference is Iowa's premier crop production education event. No other program in Iowa brings together the diverse range of topics, slate of expert presenters and results of the latest University research.

The ICM Conference offers workshops focusing on the latest in crop production technology. Experts from Iowa and surrounding states will provide research updates and results in soil fertility, soil and water management, crop production and pest management.

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Abstract

Crop production forecasts have two components--acres to be harvested and expected yield per acre. For example, preliminary corn and soybean acreage estimates are made using data obtained from a survey of farmers conducted during the first 2 weeks in June. Expected corn and soybean yields are obtained monthly, August through November, from two different types of yield surveys. Data from the yield surveys reflect conditions as of the first of the month, as data are collected during the last week of the previous month and the first 2 or 3 days of the current month.

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