Weather and corn: Crop condition reports are not enough

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2010-12-01
Authors
Taylor, Elwynn
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Proceedings of the Integrated Crop Management Conference
Iowa State University Conferences and Symposia

The Iowa State University Integrated Crop Management Conference is Iowa's premier crop production education event. No other program in Iowa brings together the diverse range of topics, slate of expert presenters and results of the latest University research.

The ICM Conference offers workshops focusing on the latest in crop production technology. Experts from Iowa and surrounding states will provide research updates and results in soil fertility, soil and water management, crop production and pest management.

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Abstract

Drought, hail, frost, flood, and heat waves, together with impacts of soil fertility and moisture, weed pressure, insect damage, and plant disease are in the group of environmental factors that impact the reported crop condition and, ultimately, crop yield. Observed crop condition is the “best” early indicator of likely yield. Condition includes plant populations and viable ear counts. The “likely yield” estimated by the National Agricultural Statistics Service is based on the observed crop condition at the time the forecast is compiled and assumes “normal” weather for the remainder of the growing season. About one year in four, crop “Condition” is not the major indicator. When condition has stabilized, the better indicator is associated with growing degree days and the likely yield is not apparent to the observer of crop condition. The weekly federal assessment publishes crop condition and development but does not (apparently) consider the development and growing degree day accumulation in the forecast of likely yield.

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