Campus Units
Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering
Document Type
Article
Publication Version
Accepted Manuscript
Publication Date
5-2010
Journal or Book Title
Energy Systems
Volume
1
Issue
2
First Page
209
Last Page
243
DOI
10.1007/s12667-010-0012-7
Abstract
To explore the effects of uncertain fuel costs on the bulk energy flows in the US, we introduce stochastic fuel costs in a generalized network flow model of the integrated electric energy system, including coal, natural gas, and electricity generation. The fuel costs are modeled as discretely distributed random variables. A rolling two-stage recourse stochastic programming approach is employed to simulate the decision process involving uncertain costs with forecast updates. All the data are derived from publicly available information for the years 2002, when natural gas prices rose much higher than forecast, and 2006, when gas prices were lower than expected. Government forecasts of the natural gas prices are adapted to generate the scenarios considered in the stochastic formulation. Compared to the expected value solution from the deterministic model, the recourse solution found from the stochastic model for 2002 has higher total cost, lower natural gas consumption and less subregional power trade but a fuel mix that is closer to what actually occurred. The comparisons are qualitatively similar but muted in the 2006 case. The stochastic model assists decision makers to simulate the future flows within the national electric energy system and better understand how they are affected by uncertain fuel costs.
Copyright Owner
Springer Verlag
Copyright Date
2010
Language
en
File Format
application/pdf
Recommended Citation
Wang, Yan and Ryan, Sarah M., "Effects of uncertain fuel costs on fossil fuel and electric energy flows in the US" (2010). Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering Publications. 127.
https://lib.dr.iastate.edu/imse_pubs/127
Comments
The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12667-010-0012-7. Posted with permission.