On the Validity of the Geometric Brownian Motion Assumption

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2005-01-01
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Marathe, Rahul
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Ryan, Sarah
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Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering
The Department of Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering teaches the design, analysis, and improvement of the systems and processes in manufacturing, consulting, and service industries by application of the principles of engineering. The Department of General Engineering was formed in 1929. In 1956 its name changed to Department of Industrial Engineering. In 1989 its name changed to the Department of Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering.
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Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering
Abstract

The geometric Brownian motion (GBM) process is frequently invoked as a model for such diverse quantities as stock prices, natural resource prices and the growth in demand for products or services. We discuss a process for checking whether a given time series follows the GBM process. Methods to remove seasonal variation from such a time series are also analyzed. Of four industries studied, the historical time series for usage of established services meet the criteria for a GBM; however, the data for growth of emergent services do not.

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The Version of Record of this manuscript has been published and is available in Engineering Economist 2005, http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/00137910590949904. Posted with permission.

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Sat Jan 01 00:00:00 UTC 2005
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